CosmicDancePro -- Measuring LEO satellite's orbital decay and network connectivity implications during solar storms
Suvam Basak, Amitangshu Pal, Debopam Bhattacherjee
TLDR
CosmicDancePro is an open-source tool analyzing LEO satellite orbital decay and network connectivity during solar storms, revealing Starlink's storm responses.
Key contributions
- Introduces CosmicDancePro, an open-source tool for analyzing LEO satellite orbital decay and network degradation during solar storms.
- Identifies Starlink's specific fleet management strategies during the May 2024 solar superstorm.
- Explains the 'W'-shaped altitude variation pattern observed across LEO constellations during storms.
- Quantifies network impacts: outages, 500ms+ latency spikes, 60% uplink loss, and 10+ Mbps data rate drops.
Why it matters
This paper is crucial as it addresses the growing vulnerability of LEO satellite networks to solar storms, a critical concern for global connectivity. It introduces CosmicDancePro, a vital open-source tool, and provides unprecedented insights into how major constellations like Starlink are impacted and adapt. These findings are essential for designing more resilient LEO networks and improving space weather mitigation strategies.
Original Abstract
The May 2024 solar superstorm highlighted the vulnerability of rapidly expanding low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite networks to severe space weather events. To systematically evaluate LEO network resilience, we introduce an open-source tool, CosmicDancePro. It enables a comprehensive analysis of the effects of solar storms in the LEO satellite network. It integrates real-world multimodal datasets, including space weather measurements from several satellites, upper-atmospheric density conditions from data-driven and high-fidelity physics-based models, and LEO satellite trajectory and LEO network measurement traces to quantify orbital decay driven by enhanced atmospheric density and network connectivity degradation. We utilize CosmicDancePro to analyze the Starlink constellation's behavior during two recent major solar storms. First, we identify the specific fleet management strategies Starlink adopts during the May 2024 solar superstorm and how they differ from its regular orbit-correction strategy. Second, we identify the mechanisms driving the previously unexplained 'W'-shaped altitude variation pattern across orbital planes of LEO constellations. Finally, our network-layer analysis quantifies the connectivity degradation during these storms, revealing transient disruptions that include repetitive short-lived outages, reconfiguration latency spikes above 500 ms, up to 60% increase in uplink loss, distorted diurnal latency patterns, and a 10+ Mbps drop in end-user data rates during storm peaks.
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