Synchronized disease and behavioural dynamics in weakly coupled populations
Xinxuan Wang, Youngmin Park, Bryce Morsky
TLDR
This paper shows that weak social coupling between populations can synchronize disease and vaccination dynamics, with payoff sensitivity determining synchronization type.
Key contributions
- Studied two populations with oscillating disease prevalence and vaccination behavior.
- Introduced weak social coupling via influence between these populations.
- Demonstrated that coupling leads to synchronization of disease dynamics.
- Found that different payoff sensitivities can cause synchronization or anti-synchronization.
Why it matters
Understanding how social influence couples populations is crucial for predicting and controlling disease outbreaks. This research provides insights into complex behavioral-epidemiological feedback loops and their impact on public health strategies.
Original Abstract
The spread of infectious disease is strongly influenced by social dynamics. In addition to infection risk, individuals vaccination decisions depend on prevailing social behavior: high infection levels and widespread vaccination can increase vaccine uptake, which in turn suppresses infection. This feedback can generate sustained oscillations in disease prevalence and vaccination behavior. Here, we study two such populations undergoing the same behavioral epidemiological limit cycle and introduce weak coupling between them through social influence. We show that coupling leads to synchronization of disease dynamics between the two groups. Moreover, we find that different payoff sensitivity may lead to synchronization or anti synchronization.
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