Maksym Nechepurenko
5 papers · Latest:
Manipulation, Insider Information, and Regulation in Leveraged Event-Linked Markets
This paper analyzes how leverage impacts manipulation and informed trading in event-linked markets, proposing a new taxonomy and regulatory recommendations.
ForesightFlow: An Information Leakage Score Framework for Prediction Markets
ForesightFlow introduces an Information Leakage Score (ILS) framework to detect informed trading in decentralized prediction markets, including a deadline-ILS extension.
Information Leakage at Population Scale: An Evaluation of the Polymarket Insider-Relevant Subpopulation, 2020-2026
This paper evaluates information leakage on Polymarket using the ILS-dl framework, finding its effective domain is narrower than expected due to resolution semantics, not computation.
The Signal Credibility Index for Prediction Markets: A Microstructure-Grounded Diagnostic with Weighted and Time-Varying Extensions
This paper formalizes and validates the Signal Credibility Index (SCI) to diagnose information quality in prediction market price movements.
Price as Focal Point: Prediction Markets,Conditional Reflexivity, and the Politics of Common Knowledge
This paper argues prediction markets act as coordination mechanisms, influencing behavior and potentially becoming self-fulfilling, rather than just forecasting.
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