Migration-Driven Demographic Changes: effects on local communities in the canton of Fribourg

Original Abstract

Migration is reshaping demographic landscapes across Europe, raising urgent questions about adapting to rapid population changes. This study examines the canton of Fribourg, Switzerland, which experienced a 30% population increase over the past 15 years, driven by international and internal migration. As local governments face mounting pressures from demographic shifts in housing, education, and social services, understanding the causal effects of migration is essential for evidence-based policymaking. We study how migration reshapes local demographic, educational, and housing outcomes across 112 Fribourg municipalities (2010-2021). Using the intertemporal difference-in-differences estimator of De Chaisemartin and D'Haultfoeuille (2024), which accommodates staggered timing and cumulative, non-binary treatment, we identify the effect of a one-percentage-point increase in cumulative migration balance (relative to baseline population). Migration exposure generates modest but persistent adjustments across demographic, educational, and housing dimensions. Both migration types reduce the share of elderly residents, and international inflows are associated with higher birth counts. Internal migration increases resident students and alters compulsory and secondary-school cohorts, while international migration slightly reduces the tertiary-education share. Housing adjustments are gradual and concentrated in household composition and selected dwelling types, with international migration increasing mid-sized households and internal migration reducing mixed-use dwellings. Though yearly effects are small, their persistence yields meaningful cumulative changes. Overall, migration acts as a counterweight to population aging and generates incremental adjustments in service demand, underscoring the need to incorporate migration exposure into cantonal and municipal planning.