From Gaia to GaiaNIR: II. A new view of the Milky Way bar

Original Abstract

The Milky Way (MW) hosts a central bar whose pattern speed, orientation, and length remain uncertain, largely due to observational biases and selection effects, despite the transformative data provided by the Gaia mission. We aim to reassess the MW bar properties using Gaia DR3, explicitly accounting for incompleteness and astrometric uncertainties, and to quantify the expected improvements from future Gaia DR4, DR5, and GaiaNIR data. We combine Gaia DR3 RGB samples with line-of-sight velocities and realistic Gaia and GaiaNIR mock catalogues to characterise observational biases. We then apply standard techniques to infer the bar pattern speed and structural properties, and evaluate their performance for upcoming data releases. Using Gaia DR3 RGB mock catalogues, we find that the bar pattern speed exhibits a systematic offset of $+14.4 \pm 2.3$ km$~$s$^{-1}~$kpc$^{-1}$. Applying this approach to the data yields $Ω_p = 43.7 \pm 0.1$ km$~$s$^{-1}~$kpc$^{-1}$, which we interpret as a conservative upper limit. Correcting for this bias gives $Ω_p = 29.3 \pm 2.3$ km$~$s$^{-1}~$kpc$^{-1}$, although this estimate should be treated with caution given the limited number of mock realizations. We also detect bisymmetric perturbations in $v_φ$ and $\langle |v_R / v_{\rm tot}| \rangle$, with phase angles $φ_b = 19$-$24^\circ$ in the bar region. Future Gaia data releases, together with GaiaNIR, are expected to reduce systematic offsets in the pattern speed to $\sim +5$ km$~$s$^{-1}~$kpc$^{-1}$. In addition, GaiaNIR will further improve proper motion precision to below $0.001$ mas$~$yr$^{-1}$ for bright sources and extend the spatial coverage. Our results indicate that current measurements of the MW bar pattern speed are significantly affected by systematics, but that forthcoming Gaia and GaiaNIR data will substantially improve both accuracy and robustness.