Do Projects Learn Across Space and Time? Evidence from the Olympics
Atif Ansar, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier
TLDR
The Olympics show no sustained cost improvement over 64 years due to spatiotemporal barriers blocking higher-level learning.
Key contributions
- Analyzed Olympic cost overruns from 1960-2024, finding no sustained improvement despite theoretical learning potential.
- Introduces "myopia of learning," attributing lack of progress to spatiotemporal factors like geographic distance and temporary organizations.
- Distinguishes between abundant tactical learning and absent strategic improvement in Olympic project management.
- Proposes four strategies (incremental, centralizing, decentralizing, real options) for radical reform to overcome learning barriers.
Why it matters
This paper challenges the assumption that large, recurring projects naturally learn and improve. It highlights critical organizational and spatiotemporal factors preventing strategic learning, offering insights for complex programs. The proposed reform strategies provide a roadmap for future project governance.
Original Abstract
Do projects learn across space and time? The Olympics, among the largest publicly funded programmes in the world, offer a unique empirical setting. Theoretically, the Games seem ideal for generating "positive learning curves," driving down costs from one iteration to the next. In practice, they do not. Drawing on the concept of "myopia of learning," we argue that spatiotemporality (geographic distance, temporal gaps, and the temporary organisational form of each host committee) combines to block higher-level learning. Our analysis of cost overruns from 1960 to 2024 reveals no sustained improvement over 64 years. Tactical learning abounds, but none aggregates into strategic improvement. We propose four strategies for overcoming the spatiotemporal barrier (incremental, centralising, decentralising, and real options), arguing that radical reform is required.
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