A Diagnostics-First Composite Index for Macro-Financial Resilience to Socioeconomic Challenges: The Gondauri Index with Benchmarking and Scenario Evidence
TLDR
The Gondauri Index (GI) provides a diagnostics-first composite framework to benchmark macro-financial resilience across economies on a 0-100 scale.
Key contributions
- Introduces the Gondauri Index (GI) for benchmarking macro-financial resilience on a unified 0-100 scale.
- Integrates three interpretable pillars: Inequality, Liquidity & Systemic, and Inflation Forecast Coherence.
- Ensures cross-country comparability through robust percentile normalization and explicit missing-data handling.
- Provides dynamic evidence (2005-2024), scenario pathways (2026-2030), and identifies binding resilience constraints.
Why it matters
This paper introduces a novel, scalable tool for assessing macro-financial resilience, addressing limitations of conventional dashboards. It offers early-warning diagnostics and supports evidence-based policy sequencing by identifying key constraints.
Original Abstract
In the face of socioeconomic challenges, this paper develops and empirically demonstrates the Gondauri Index (GI) as a reproducible diagnostics-first composite framework for benchmarking macro-financial resilience across heterogeneous economies on a unified 0-100 scale. The GI addresses a key limitation of conventional surveillance dashboards: resilience is multi-dimensional and only partially substitutable, so strength in one area cannot sustainably offset fragility in another. The index integrates three interpretable pillars: Inequality Resilience Score (IRS), Liquidity and Systemic Resilience (LNSR), and Inflation Forecast Coherence (IFC). Cross-country comparability is ensured through robust percentile normalization (p5-p95), a consistent annual country-year design, and explicit missing-data handling via component-level weight renormalization. Empirically, the paper provides a 2024 benchmark snapshot and dynamic evidence for 2005-2024 using 5-year rolling diagnostics and Delta log(GI) contribution decomposition, allowing transparent attribution of resilience changes to pillar-level drivers. A forward-looking extension constructs 2026-2030 scenario pathways and introduces a binding-pillar diagnostic that identifies the dominant constraint on resilience across horizons. Overall, the GI offers a scalable tool for comparative resilience assessment, early-warning diagnostics, and evidence-based policy sequencing.
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