Unveiling contrasting impacts of heat mitigation and adaptation policies on U.S. internal migration
Chao Li, Xing Su, Chao Fan, Yang Li, Luping Li + 5 more
TLDR
Heat adaptation policies reduce U.S. internal out-migration, while mitigation policies surprisingly increase it, with effects varying by policy type and demographics.
Key contributions
- Heat adaptation policies reduce U.S. internal out-migration, but mitigation policies surprisingly increase it.
- Specific policy types, like behavioral/cultural mitigation policies, significantly boost origin county outflows.
- Socioeconomic factors (income, age, education, race) nonlinearly moderate migration responses to these policies.
Why it matters
This paper reveals critical, contrasting impacts of heat policies on U.S. internal migration. It offers vital insights for policymakers to understand how different climate interventions influence population movement, enabling more effective and nuanced policy design as global warming persists.
Original Abstract
While climate-induced population migration has received rising attention, the role played by human climate endeavors remains underexplored. Here, we combine machine learning with attribution mapping to analyze the impacts of 4,713 heat-related policies (HPs) on 11,177 migration flows between U.S. counties. We find that heat adaptation policies (APs) and heat mitigation policies (MPs) have significant and opposing impacts on internal migration: APs reduce out-migration, while MPs increase it. These policies have heterogeneous effects on migration among policy types. Behavioral and cultural MPs at origins lead to a 0.24%-0.68% (95% confidence interval) increase in annual outflows per policy, whereas behavioral and cultural APs at destinations elevate outflows of origins by 0.11%-1.55% (95% confidence interval). Migration patterns are nonlinearly moderated by income, ageing, education, and racial diversity of both origin and destination counties. Ageing rates have the most noticeable U-shaped relationship in shaping migration responses to behavioral and cultural MPs at origins, and inverted U-shapes for institutional MPs at origins and nature-based MPs at destinations. These findings offer critical insights for policymakers on how HPs influence migration as global warming and policy interventions persist.
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